The Betting Market’s Optimism
According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are even higher than what a popular betting market has predicted. On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket reported that the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. Sigel described this forecast as "underpriced" in a post on the X platform.
Industry-Wide Expectations
The industry is abuzz with expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US, following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
Polymarket’s Projected Odds
As of January 2nd, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds had increased to approximately 84%, according to its website. This represents a significant increase in the predicted chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025.
Favorable Listing Prospects
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. While the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged their plans in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity, industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
The Grantor Trust Structure
Industry analysts believe that success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar ‘grantor trust’ structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. This is because Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, use an atypical grantor trust structure.
Bullish Bettors
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Betting on a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. Magazine: How Crypto Laws Are Changing Across the World in 2025.
The Importance of Regulatory Approval
While regulatory approval is essential for any ETF listing, industry analysts believe that Trump’s presidential win has created a favorable environment for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
The Potential Impact of a Solana ETF Listing
A Solana ETF listing in the US could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. It could increase investment and trading activity, potentially driving up prices and increasing adoption. Additionally, it could pave the way for other types of crypto ETFs to list in the US.
Conclusion
The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States are higher than what a popular betting market has predicted. Industry-wide expectations suggest that more crypto ETF listings in the US are on the horizon, following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Regulatory approval is essential for any ETF listing, but industry analysts believe that Trump’s presidential win has created a favorable environment for proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
Future Outlook
As we move into 2025, it will be interesting to see how these predictions unfold. Will Polymarket’s forecast prove accurate, and will a Solana ETF listing become a reality in the US? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain – the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with excitement and anticipation as we look towards what promises to be an eventful year.
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